Overall Conclusions: Too Hot to Handle?

Throughout the course of this blog, the emphasis has changed somewhat. To begin with I introduced the general concepts around species, their migrationary capacity and their response to predicted changes in climate. Migration rates were examined, including concepts such as Reid’s paradox, which describes post glacial species migration rates of up to 1000 m per year. Spatial variability of future climate change led to theories of favourable microclimates and possible refugia.

I have shown how climate change has already started to effect species, such as the Turdus migratorius and Marmota flaviventris due to changes in phenology in the Colardo rockies. Other species such as tree populations in North America were analyzed in the context of their range shift due to climate change.

From there, I decided to link past migrations from glacial refugia to possible future modelled migrations. Southern glacial refugia in the mediterranean peninsulas of Iberia, Italy and the Balkans were discussed. Methods of locating glacial refugia such as phylogeographic techniques and reconstructing post glacial colonization through macrofossils and pollen records have been demonstrated. This information was used to infer whether migration rates described in Reid’s paradox could be feasile. I concluded that the existence of cryptic northern glacial refugia was the most likely explanation.

Having shown evidence from past climate change and post glacial recolonization, I reviewed current vegetation modelling techniques. Bioclimate models were found to be the most commonly used, however several criticisms were apparent. These were mainly aimed at their simplicity, as they did not take into account: land use, inter species interaction and evolutionary change and other such parameters. Dynamic global vegetation models are the next generation of model from which future climate impacts on ecosystems should be drawn. An example of how DGVMs may be used was shown, although significant further research into modelling processes needs to be undertaken.

From this blog I hope to have shown the possible effects of climate change on species, and how it will force them to migrate to higher latitudes and altitudes. If i were to have continued this blog I would have focussed on theories and findings as they are published to further my understanding of the topic at the forefront of the field. I have found this experience to be interesting and exciting and would like to thank Dr. Anson Mackay for giving us this unique way of exhibiting our knowledge as well as contributing to academic debate.

Application of a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

Today’s post will look at the future impacts of Climate Change on the earths ecosystems from predictions from dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). A paper by Gonzalez et al. (2010) attempts to model future changes in global biomes by comparing observed changes in 20th century climate with modelled predictions of 21st century vegetation changes. Three global climate models (GCMs) were used in cooperation with the MC1 DGVM.

Results from the projected climate data (Figure 2) and projected vegetation changes (Figure 3) are shown. The GCMs project widespread temperature increase and precipitation changes by 2100. This includes global average temperature increases of 2.4-4 degrees. Average precipitation increases at rates of 0.03-0.04 mm, but becomes increasingly spatially variable. The model also predicts that wildfire frequency will increase in around 1/3 of the global area.

Results from global vegetation modelling follows observed patterns of global biomes. MC1 projections show potential extensive changes under 2071-2100 scenarios. Temperate mixed forest shows the highest areas of potential change, with desert showing the lowest. Gonzalez et al. (2010) believe between one-tenth and one-half of the earths biomes may be highly to very highly vulnerable to change.

Vegetation projections suggest potential latitudinal biome shifts of up to 400 km. Temperate mixed forest shows high vulnerability due to projected loss of coniferous species leading to conversion to temperate broadleaf forest. Tropical ecosystems show low vulnerability to change due to their high temperature tolerance combined with projections of increased precipitation around the equator (Malhi et al. 2008). MC1 data is congruent with data from other DGVMs which agree on shift of boreal forest into tundra at high latitudes and some forest lost in the Amazon.

As for effects, a large proportion of the world’s population live in areas in high vulnerability of potential biome changes. Biome change may alter ecosystem services, such as wood for timber, grass species preferred for grazing and water retention capacity of watersheds for human consumption.

Analysing the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Model (LPJ)

Todays post will be to do with analysing one of the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) previously discussed. The one chosen is the LPJ model discussed in Sitch et al. (2003). It is one of many fully integrated DGVMs that have been developed following the criticism of bioclimate envelope models. The model describes vegetation in terms of fractional coverage of a grid cell, taking into account different plant functional types (PFTs) (Table 1).

Each PFT is then assigned bioclimatic limits (Table 2) which determines whether the species can survive/regenerate under the climatic conditions of the particular grid cell.

LPJ addresses the limitations of bioclimate envelope models be including representation of vegetation structure, dynamics, competition between PFTs and soil biogeography into the model. Figure 1 shows the model logic.

The model can predict changes on different spatial scales. My post will focus on those on the global scale. Figure 2 shows a simulated map of potential natural vegetation for the modern climate. It accurately shows the boreal evergreen forests in Canada and northern Eurasia, the boreal deciduous forests in Siberia, and the transition into temperate ecosystems of north America, western Europe and China. LPJ simulates the transition from savanna into evergreen rainforests near the equator, as well as northern tundra, and grasslands in drier areas.

Figure 2. LPJ predictions of PFT distribution

LPJ has been shown to be able to reproduce relatively accurate models of current global ecosystems. This proves the model’s effectivness and provides some reliability for its application to future modelling. Looking forward, attempts should be made to use this information to examine possible effects of climate on species on a global scale. Having shown an example of a DGVM and how they work and my next post will show how one can be applied to the modelling of a certain area, with hopefully some results.

Vegetation Modelling - Looking to the Future

Having looked back at how species responded to the changing climates of Northern Hemisphere glaciation and subsequent warming it is now important to look forward to how this may help us model how species will react to future climate change. Historical records are important as they can provide the background for predictions for the future. As shown in a previous post, ‘The Bioclimate Envelope Model - outdated and simple?’, the bioclimate envelope model is still one of the most commonly used models, although it lacks the complexity it simulates. Looking forward, Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) will provide greater capacity for accurate predictions of global shifts of species. 

Some challenges that these models face include (Neilson et al. 2005): 

• ‘Accurately estimating the importance of long-distance dispersal in the establishment and proliferation of species within new vegetation communities.’
• ‘Aggregating information from individual species into the category of plant functional types (PFTs).’
• ‘Incorporating temporal and spatial heterogeneity within large spatial grid cells into the modeling of migration.’

One factor that has to be taken into account is how the warming will affect the ecosystem alteration. Ecosystems tend to change species composition by in situ conversion, where the subdominant species replace the dominant ones (due to different tolerances) or via migration of species from the local region. Adaptability of ecosystems to rapid changes appears to be related to the diversity of species traits that are available to assume old and new functions (Loreau et al. 2002). The more adaptive an ecosystem is the less likely there will be sudden changes in ecosystem function. An example of this can be seen in the southwestern United States with the replacement of the regionally dominant pinyon pine (Pinus remota) with another species (Pinus edulis) during the glacial to interglacial transition (Lanner & Wan Devender 1998). The shift of dominance may have been large but the ecosystem retained its function during the climatic change.

DGVMs are conceived to merge vegetation distribution and ecosystem process models (Cramer et al. 2001). Recent advances in the capabilities of DGVMs have been impressive and include dynamic simulations of vegetation distributions for national and global assessments of climate change (Cox et al. 2000). There have been difficulties with spatial and temporal scales, seeing as current DGVMs often operate with a grid cell size of approximately 50 km on a side, much larger than local dispersal distances. Also, many of the most important processes (e.g., photosynthesis, flowering, and seed set) are also faster than the model time step, which is typically daily to monthly, and must therefore be scaled up. However there will always be a threshold beyond which certain parameters can be simulated. 

DGVMs should be the primary tool for decision makers to evaluate the question of safe rates of climate change, and impacts on carbon and other biosphere feedbacks to the atmosphere. However, migration must also be incorporated into the models. The entire process of migration is lacking in observational data for use in the vegetation models. Data required includes: the processes from flowering and seed set to short and long distance dispersal, establishment and growth, and then to completion of the cycle. Data needs include: quantification of initial establishment and early growth in the face of competition and other biotic interactions. 


Incorporating an expanded concept of PFTs in DGVMs including migration and in situ conversion will be important to model future global ecosystem and species shifts. I have looked at the negative aspects of DVGMs in this post, even through they do represent the most accurate modelling technique for future use. In the next post I will show an example of how these models can be used.

Final Conclusions on Glacial Refugia

The post will attempt to give a well rounded review of the debate over cryptic glacial refugia in the Northern Hemisphere.

The consensus is that glacial refugia existed in the mountains of the mediterranean peninsulas in Iberia, Italy and the Balkans. This is where temperate tree species are thought to have persisted during full glaciations. However, there is another theory that cryptic glacial refugia existed in parts of northern Europe. For example the tree pollen records in northern Europe in the early postglacial period suggest huge migrations rates of trees of up to 1500m per year if they colonized from southern refugia. The theory of cryptic refugia involves some tree populations being able to survive in favourable microclimates during glaciations where the regional climate would not normally be suitable (Stewart & Lister 2001). How the population manage to survive are not fully understood, and many scientists (Tzedakis et al. 2003) put the presence of the early post glacial pollen to isolated long distance dispersal events.

Examples of cryptic populations can be seen today in certain areas in the current climate. In the central Sahara a total of 223 individuals of the conifer, Cupressus dupreziana, managed to persists in ravines, where rainfall averages at 30 mm per annum (subject to large variability) (Abdoun & Beddiaf 2002). This is similar in the way in which certain temperate tree species may have been able to survive in northern Europe during glaciations.

Techniques used to identify refugia are: pollen analysis, macrofossils and molecular techniques. Pollen analysis can be used to show the presence of species in an area. For species with low production and that are non wind pollinated, presence of the species can be concluded with confidence, however with wind pollinated species the pollen could have been produced outside the regional area. The records are quite vast and are an important tool in assessing species presence.

Macrofossils are the most precise way to identify species. Macrofossils have been recovered from paleolithic sites in northern Spain, dated between 17,000 and 15,000 years BP revealing a diverse assemblage of temperate and mediterranean species. This suggests a glacial refugium was present. Although this suggests the prescence of tree species, it does not make clear the type of vegetation (e.g. forest, woodland, steppe, steppe-tundra). Willis et al. (2000) studied macroscopic charcoal particles in glacial sediments in Hungry. They concluded that there were ‘oases’ in central Europe where temperate flora and fauna could survive the glacial conditions.

Molecular techniques involve the phylogeographic techniques discussed in a previous post. They involve studying, amongst others, species diversity as identifier of refugia. See ‘Glacial refugia - are they being too cryptic’ for a refresher on phylogeographic techniques. An example of how it is used is the prescence of Scot’s pine, Pinus sylvestris, in Scotland. High nuclear genetic diversity in scottish populations of P. sylvestris suggest a cryptic glacial refugium (Sinclair et al. 1999) during the last glaciation.

The evidence suggests that plant species persisted during glaciations in cryptic glacial refugia. While some academics still believe post glacial recolonization took place by long distance dispersal from southern refugia, I believe the cyptic glacial refugia hypothesis to be a better fit. 

The hypothesis manages to explain the huge migration rates had been inferred from colonization from southern refugia, which were highly unrealistic. This breakthrough has impact on future modelling of vegetation change due to climate change. After understanding how glacial refugia exists and the debates over post glacial colonization, the blog will move on to looking at the future and how vegetation modelling will be important for assessing climate impacts on species migration.

Diversity Estimators for Locating Glacial Refugia

This next post is going to focus on how species diversity is assessed in order to infer areas of glacial refugia. A common assumption is that glacial refugia harbor higher levels of genetic diversity than areas of subsequent colonization. This is the basis on which many glacial refugia are located. However Comps et al. (2001) believe this to be too simplistic, as the way in which genetic diversity is estimated can influence the results. To give a brief background of Comps et al. (2001), they studied European beech (Fagus sylvatica) across Europe. As F. sylvatica is wind pollinated a detailed pollen record is available in which the genetic data can be compared against. In addition it was chosen as its closest relative is Fagus orientalis so there are no problems of interspecies introgression.

The question is what pattern of diversity is expected from recolonization of a refugium? Colonizations of new areas normally consist of populations of a few individuals therefore showing a small sample of the genetic diversity of the source population. How much of a reduction is dependent of diversity estimators. For the new population, allelic richness (which is the number of alleles per population) would be expected to be lower than genetic diversity (which is the probability that two alleles sampled at random from a population are different). In F. sylvatica, allelic richness was lower in populations in Northern Europe, consistent with loss of rare alleles due to recolonization. 

However a reduction in genetic diversity was not found. Comps et al. (2001) found a negative correlation between allelic richness and genetic diversity. This meant areas with a decreased allelic richness displayed an increased genetic diversity. Since the majority of papers only calculate genetic diversity, academics may be misled in the identification of glacial refugia.

Personally I take the findings of Comps et al. (2001) with a pinch of salt. I have used this example not to show that a wrong estimator is being used, just that other estimators are available and might give slightly different results. I believe that the increase in genetic diversity when allelic richness decreased was a conclusion unique to the species in question and general conclusions should not be taken from this case study. It does bring an extra addition to the glacial refugia debate and I believe that diversity estimators should be taken into account when discussing methods of glacial refugia identification.

Glacial Refugia - A Refresher and Possible Explanation of Some of the Flaws

As previously stated, this blog will now focus on two main aspects; glacial refugia and species migration models. To kickstart this, a refresher to glacial refugia is required. During glaciations, temperatures plummet and aridity increases. Biologists often hypothesize the fate of temperate fauna and flora during these periods. Refugia describes the areas in which these species inhabit during the full glacial conditions, and often determine the current patterns of biodiversity we see in temperate species. The precise locations and impact on present day distribution is often under debate and new information is constantly being found that enhances our understanding.

Willis & Whittaker (2000) propose that the function of glacial refugia in temperate latitudes is to protect species diversity, while in tropical zones its primary function is to encourage speciation. It has also been proposed that glaciation can complete speciation events inaugurated in earlier geological time. An example of this can be seen in the formation of three new species of black-throated warblers in North America during the last glacial period. Studies of the Amazon basin have led to questioning of the glacial refugia hypotheses. Increasing aridity would lead to the wide scale change to savanna from lowland tropical rainforest. Under the hypothesis this would lead to small refugial belts in the mountains where the conditions would be wetter. However study of pollen records from the Amazon basin have shown that the area was not replaced with savanna and the forests have dominated throughout the glacial period. It has been suggested that the effectiveness of cold-stage aridity to roll back the rainforest has been greatly overestimated. Study of genetic diversity of the lowland canopy tree Poulsenai armata in Central America has shown a greater within-population diversity than would be consistent with postglacial expansion from a distant refugia.

Another twist in the Amazon-refugia debate is the distribution of endemic species within lowland Amazonia. It is hypothesized by Nores (1999) that this patterning of endemic species is the product of sea level rises of over 100 metres during the interglacials of the Quaternary and late Tertiary periods. This led to the formation of two large islands and several smaller archipelagos encouraging speciation through geographic isolation. It is important to always question the current paradigm as this is the way in which scientific discoveries are found. What is generally accepted as true is not necessarily so, only the best possible explanation of the current evidence, and I feel it is important to question areas that do not fit in with this paradigm, in this case the example of Central American forests and Amazonian species diversity.

The debate over glacial refugia is still in its infancy and will be delved deeper in subsequent posts of this blog. The next post will focus on how species diversity is assessed and what impact this has on determining glacial refugia.

A Shift in Emphasis

After having provided a historical context and examples of how and why species migrate due to climate change this blog has decided to focus on two main aspects. The first is to deal with the debate over glacial refugia and species migrationary capacity to disperse following glaciation. The second being to look in further detail at species migration models and critically assess how future migrations can be predicted. Both of these aspects are linked, inferring past migrations from paleoecological data in to help model future major species migrations in response to climate change.

Species Migrationary Response to Climate Change - A Poster

Below is the poster created from the work already put forward by this blog. An innovative design breathes fresh life into academic posters that can sometimes be very much alike.

Glacial Refugia - Are They Being too Cryptic?

As previously promised, todays post will be discussing glacial refugia. During the Last Glacial Maximum at around 23,000 to 18,000 BP most of the temperate biota existed in lower latitude refugia. Extensive analysis has revealed the existence of three main refugia in the Mediterranean peninsulas of Iberia, Italy and the Balkans. After the LGM, Europe was recolonized from these refugia by species migrating northwards. However using phylogeographical evidence, the possibility of cryptic altitudinal refugia has arisen (Provan & Bennett 2008). This may have led to gross overestimations of species dispersal capabilities, which could in turn cause problems for estimations of species migrations in the future.

Phylogeographic techniques involve exploring species diversity as an indicator for possible refugia. Species that have survived the glacial maxima in refugia will expect to have high levels of genetic diversity. Secondly long term isolation of populations will lead distinct genetic lineages and lead to possible recolonization routes which can then be used to locate refugia. Areas with high genetic diversity that have been recolonized by many separate refugia might lead to confusion and should therefore be taken into account. Figure 2 below shows phylogeographic evidence of red seaweed (Palmaria palmata) showing a refugia in the English channel. The different colours represent different genetic types, with the highest proportion being shown in the dotted area.

Figure 2. Distribution of Palmaria palmata in Northern Europe (Provan et al. 2005)

Although phylogeographic evidence has had success locating recolonization pathways, it does not explain population dynamics during phases of species contraction. It is unclear whether species migrate to refugia during changes in climate or simply species outside the refugia become extinct. Studies of the Artic fox (Alopex lagopus) using ancient DNA data techniques have established that during post glacial contraction species outside the refugia became extinct (Dalen et al. 2007). This might have a massive effect on cold-adapted species that contract during periods of warming.

Phylogeographic techniques has provided new insights into the locations of glacial refugia. They have challenged the theory that the southern refugia were the only source of recolonization for temperate species after the LGM. The identification of cyrptic refugia has important implications for future climate change due to estimations of species migration range.

The Bioclimate Envelope - Outdated and Simple?

Todays post will focus on the bioclimate envelope model and discuss whether they are useful in determining species migrationary response to climate change. The bioclimate envelope model has its roots in the ecological niche theory. The ecological niche is a conceptual space comprising all of the environmental variables in which a species can survive and grow. The bioclimate envelope can be defined as the climatic component of the ecological niche. Therefore it involves understanding the current species distribution, and how species physiologically will respond to climate change. It might enable us to make a redistribution of species over time using climate models.

The model is widely used in decision making on future climate change, however there are some criticisms. Pearson & Dawson (2003) express concern at how the model does not take into account how species interact with each other, rather how only they function alone. Since ecosystems are a complex web of interactions and feedbacks, taking into account only the species that is being studied could lead to erroneous model predictions. Another possible facet that is not included is evolutionary change. Studies by Thomas et al. (2001) and Woodward (1990) has studied rapid evolutionary change response to climate change of plant and insect species. This involves studying climate induced shifts in species, often excluding phenotypes that are poor dispersers or poorly adapted to local conditions.

Looking forward, the development of dynamic global species models would be a more accurate approach. There has been recent development of models on regional scales that break down ecosystems processes into key components and use that to spatially and temporally model species range shifts. However due to the complexity of these models, application to global scales have not yet been possible. This means that bioclimate envelope models are still perhaps the best available guide for policy making at the present time, though they must be viewed skeptically.

Migrating Robins and Hibernating Marmots

In this post I will explore the problem of phenological (seasonal) changes affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species. A paper by Inouye et al. (2000) studied the effects of climate change on american robins (Turdus migratorius) and yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) in the Colarado Rocky Mountains. 

The site was the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Gothic, Colarado at an elevation of 2,945 m. Temperatures can reach -40 celsius and the area experiences over 7 months of snow cover a year. Annual observations showed that the beginning of the growing season at the site had not significantly changed over the past 25 years (P = 0.9) although air temperatures have slightly increased. This may be due to the slight increased volume of snowfall occurring each year.

Robins are an example of altitudinal migrants, who migrate to lower altitudes during the winter months when food is unavailable. The date that robins have been sighted has been proven not be be statistically significant (P = 0.110) but Inouye et al. (2000) believe it to be biologically significant. First sightings of robins moved on average 8.4 days earlier over the 26 years from 1974-2000. This difference has been attributed to the changing phenology of low altitude areas, initiating an earlier spring migration. High altitudes are not shifting phenologically at the same rate as the lower altitudes, causing potential problems to altitudinal migrants over food availability. Robins arriving in the Colarado Rockies will have to wait longer for the snow to melt for food to become available. While robins are able to make the 10-20 km journey back to the low altitudes, if the resources are only available for a certain period of time the robins could find themselves running out of food.

Another way species adapt to extremely low temperatures is hibernation. Marmots in the area typically begin hibernation in August/September after a period of fat accumulation  and body mass gain. The video below shows how Vancouver Island marmots hibernate and how important the period after emergence is.

Marmots are beginning to emerge significantly earlier (P = 0.029), on average 23 days over the past 23 years. This change is believed to be attributed to local air temperature which has been seen to have increased, approximately 1.4 degrees, which is also believe to be the cause of marmot emergence. As they are emerging earlier when there is still significant snow cover, food is scarce and additional stress may be put onto the marmot’s bodies to maintain a high body temperature while their fat reserves run low. While they are not able to eat immediately after emergence, after they reactivate their digestive system feeding is crucial. Prolonged snow cover may also caused decreasing litter size and frequency of reproduction.

Climate models predict increased winter precipitation in the Rockies of the magnitude of 20-70% and problems with altitudinal migrants and hibernating species will persist and most likely worsen. This is just one example of differing local and global changes in climate that can cause problem to migrating species. Spatial variability of changing temperatures may yet become a bigger problem than global mean temperature rise when studying highly mobile species.

Clement Reid - a Victorian Botanist ahead of his time

Diving straight into a a study on species migration, Pearson’s (2006) paper focuses on the uncertainty with which we can model species migration. I believe this will be a recurring theme when exploring the debate on climate change and species migration.

From examining fossil pollen data of postglacial migration of tree populations in North America, he concluded that migration rates were of the order of 100 m - 1000 m per year. These rates seem phenomenally fast and are often described as “Reid’s paradox” in recognition of Clement Reid, a Victorian botanist, who could not understand how such species could migrate so fast. A theory has been put forward where by this staggering rate of migration is explained by local dispersal from isolated populations that have managed to persist in microclimates where the regional climate has been ill-suited. The low density populations would not show up on the pollen record and hence might explain the massive rate of migration beyond the reconstructed climate ranges. This phenomenon is known as glacial refugia*.

This theory may pose problems looking towards the future. It is estimated that plant species will have to migrate at rates of over 1000 m per year in order to keep up with the current warming. Encouragement initially came from examining the historical records that hinted that such rates were possible, however McLachlan et al. (2005) believe that the migration rates were an order of magnitude slower (100 m per year) and the cause for optimism is unfounded.

Thomas et al. (2004) estimated species extinction from climate change for 1103 endemic species that cover approximately 20% of the earth. When using the maximum warming scenarios he estimated that the species, as he put it, “committed to extinction” were 21% - 23% if migration rates keep up with climate change and 38 - 52% if they do not. This is quite a frightening prospect.

New research is constantly adding to our knowledge and improving our understanding of the responses to climate change. It just goes to show that our predictions are filled with uncertainties and, frankly, guesswork. Future modeling needs to focus on local scale climates and possible refugia in areas that would be regionally unsuitable. This however is complex due to the difficulty in predicting local space climate change. Future dispersal models should not rely on unrealistic migration rates and instead should incorporate localized populations and genetic traits. Pearson’s (2006) findings gives us no cause for optimism when contemplating species response to climate change while arguing we need more research and information to reduce model uncertainty.

* There will be more detail of glacial refugia in subsequent posts.

Introduction

Global Climate Change has become the main issue of the 21st Century. Over the past 100 years the earth’s climate has warmed approximately 0.6 degrees celsius, with this figure set to rise to between 2% and 6% over the next 100 years. For a recap of global warming and a possible solution, see the video below:

Joking aside, this warming will alter habitats across the globe. In the northern hemisphere, where most  research takes place, species tend to migrate northwards or to higher altitudes.  However the landscape of today is much different compared to the post glacial period, as the presence of humans often provides barriers to migration. Species, however, do not react to average temperature rises, rather to regional changes which are highly specially heterogeneous (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Spatial variability in annual temperature since 1976 relative to 1961 and 1990 baselines (% degree per decade) (Walther et al. 2002)

Themes such as study of phenology, range and community shifts and ecosystem dynamics will be used to explore the consequences of the warming. Also considered will be possible genetic adaptations to global climate change such as changes in body size and natural events such as flowering and egg laying. This blog will explore how species will react to the changing climate and discover whether the earth will become Too Hot To Handle.

My interest in the area of biogeography, specifically species migration, stems from an enjoyment of studying a large range of species as well as how they behave. It is how species are located spatially and temporally as well as how they distribute that fascinates me. I also believe it is important for species conservation, as an understanding of species resiliency and adaptation techniques will help us protect future global biodiversity.

The main papers that I will be studying will focus on different species and their adaptation to changing climates including historical, modern-day and future struggles. I will also be examining the key themes of species migration modeling such as the bioclimate envelope as well as theories such as isolated refugia. The blog will follow a range of bird, animal and plant species.