Overall Conclusions: Too Hot to Handle?

Throughout the course of this blog, the emphasis has changed somewhat. To begin with I introduced the general concepts around species, their migrationary capacity and their response to predicted changes in climate. Migration rates were examined, including concepts such as Reid’s paradox, which describes post glacial species migration rates of up to 1000 m per year. Spatial variability of future climate change led to theories of favourable microclimates and possible refugia.

I have shown how climate change has already started to effect species, such as the Turdus migratorius and Marmota flaviventris due to changes in phenology in the Colardo rockies. Other species such as tree populations in North America were analyzed in the context of their range shift due to climate change.

From there, I decided to link past migrations from glacial refugia to possible future modelled migrations. Southern glacial refugia in the mediterranean peninsulas of Iberia, Italy and the Balkans were discussed. Methods of locating glacial refugia such as phylogeographic techniques and reconstructing post glacial colonization through macrofossils and pollen records have been demonstrated. This information was used to infer whether migration rates described in Reid’s paradox could be feasile. I concluded that the existence of cryptic northern glacial refugia was the most likely explanation.

Having shown evidence from past climate change and post glacial recolonization, I reviewed current vegetation modelling techniques. Bioclimate models were found to be the most commonly used, however several criticisms were apparent. These were mainly aimed at their simplicity, as they did not take into account: land use, inter species interaction and evolutionary change and other such parameters. Dynamic global vegetation models are the next generation of model from which future climate impacts on ecosystems should be drawn. An example of how DGVMs may be used was shown, although significant further research into modelling processes needs to be undertaken.

From this blog I hope to have shown the possible effects of climate change on species, and how it will force them to migrate to higher latitudes and altitudes. If i were to have continued this blog I would have focussed on theories and findings as they are published to further my understanding of the topic at the forefront of the field. I have found this experience to be interesting and exciting and would like to thank Dr. Anson Mackay for giving us this unique way of exhibiting our knowledge as well as contributing to academic debate.